Will Clemente says Bitcoin’s consolidation period remains uncertain; draws parallels with 2020 price action
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Will Clemente, Co-Founder of Reflexivity Research, explained that Bitcoin is widely recognized as a hard money asset, with the case for investing in Bitcoin clearer than ever. He mentioned how Larry Fink has publicly supported Bitcoin, solidifying its thesis. However, when considering investments further along the risk spectrum, questions arise about the value of various altcoins, especially those with market caps in the $1-2 billion range.
In a conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Will said that Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below its all-time highs. He noted that the duration of this consolidation is uncertain, with some referring to it as a “sideways summer.” The price action resembles late 2020 when Bitcoin consolidated below $20,000 for a while before breaking through.
He explained that many sellers at previous highs are looking to offload their holdings at break-even points, and it is uncommon for markets to break through all-time highs without facing some rejections. Additionally, he pointed out that derivative traders often get leverage long at key levels, only to be flushed out before the market stabilizes and moves forward.
Will added that while ETFs provide an interesting narrative for the market, they are not the ultimate determinant of market direction. He explained that daily ETF inflows and outflows are not reliable indicators for predicting market movements on a day-to-day basis. The general trend of ETF flows is important, but one day’s data doesn’t offer forward-looking insight.
He pointed out that ETF flows are often a reflection of market activity; for instance, net outflows occur when the market declines because people are selling, and inflows happen when the market rises due to buying. He said that looking at broader trends, such as a 7-day moving average of ETF flows, is more useful for understanding the market’s direction and potential second waves of movement.
