The Last Bitcoin Cycle? Swan Says History’s Turning
Bitcoin is drifting just above $105,000 on June 5, its lowest realized volatility in almost two years, yet Swan, the Los-Angeles-based “Bitcoin-only” financial services firm, contends the market is on the verge of its most radical re-pricing ever.
The Last Chance To Buy?
In a X thread on Wednesday night, the company argued that the familiar four-year boom-and-bust cadence is giving way to “the last rotation”—a silent transfer of coins from retail speculators to institutions whose investment horizons stretch decades. “People less committed to the long term are exiting […] and a whole new class of investors is entering,” Swan is quoting Michael Saylor, framing the hand-off from retail traders to corporate treasuries, ETFs and multinationals such as BlackRock and Fidelity.
So far, 2025 has defied the script. The third calendar year of every prior cycle—2013, 2017 and 2021—delivered the vertical moves that defined those eras. This year has offered “big moves, but also shallower corrections and longer periods of sideways chop,” Swan writes, conceding that the price action “is boring people.”
The firm’s thesis is that boredom masks an invisible supply squeeze: long-time holders taking profits above $100,000 while “long-only buyers,” in Swan’s words, methodically absorb the float. “These corporations, they’re long-only buyers. Not traders of Bitcoin,” Swan argues, underscoring the firm’s view that coins migrating into corporate vaults are effectively removed from circulation.
The thread portrays three intertwined rotations: Between entities – Trustees, lawyers and early adopters are exiting; ETFs, corporations and “sovereign-grade balance sheets” are stepping in.
Between intentions – Speculation gives way to allocation. “This new wave of buyers isn’t speculating,” Swan writes. “They’re allocating.” Between generations. The Silent Generation hoarded gold; Boomers compounded in equities; Gen X surfed tech; now Millennials, “entering their peak accumulation years,” are “inheriting trillions—and they’re choosing Bitcoin.”
Supply dynamics, Swan contends, make those rotations irreversible. “When long-term capital meets inelastic supply, the float starts vanishing,” the firm warns. “That’s when things get explosive.” The macro backdrop adds pressure: Swan points to a “rare and dangerous split” in which the US dollar is weakening even as bond yields surge—an environment, it says, that could funnel excess capital toward a neutral store of value.
“This isn’t just the next cycle. It’s the end of an era,” Swan concludes. “If you’re selling now, understand you’re likely handing your Bitcoin to an institution that plans to hold it indefinitely. Once it’s gone, you’re probably never getting it back.”
For Swan, the implication is stark. The apparent tranquility near $105,000 is less a sign of exhaustion than the quiet before a permanent liquidity event—one in which the marginal seller disappears, the marginal buyer never sells, and price must eventually mark higher to find equilibrium.
“Think twice,” Swan advises would-be profit-takers. “The float is drying up. The buyers are built different. This is the last Bitcoin rotation.” If the firm is right, history is not repeating so much as culminating, and the market’s current stillness may soon be remembered as the eye of a generational storm.
At press time, BTC traded at $104,605.
